🏦 We'll do it live!

View in Browser

Tonight: The Fed meeting may have been a snooze-fest but Nightcap won't be. Plus: The fallen king of crypto is skating on very thin ice. Let's get into it.

By Allison Morrow

Dow	35,520.12	0.23%
S&P 500	4,566.75	0.02%
NASDAQ	14,127.28	0.12%

Last updated July 26 at 7:49 PM ET

🏦 'YAWNER'

Hardly anyone would describe a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee as a rager, but today's quarter-point rate hike was, even for the central bank, pretty boring.

"The statement is a yawner," commented Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. Wall Street appeared to agree, as stocks ended the day little changed (though, notably, the Dow eked out a small gain, notching its 13th consecutive win — the longest winning streak for the index since 1987.)

Sure, interest rates are now at their highest level in 22 years. And yes, they've reached that level super fast — in just 18 months, the Fed has raised rates 11 times, from near zero to a range between 5.25% and 5.5% in just 18 months. All of that was largely expected.

But there were some notable takeaways, as my colleague Elisabeth Buchwald writes.

1️⃣ The 'soft landing' is within reach

Fed chief Jay Powell still believes the Fed can get inflation down to 2% without cratering the economy — something that most observers would have called fantastical a year ago.

In other words: That 2023 recession you've been warned about ... it's far less likely now.

2️⃣ Looking for rate cuts? Keep looking.

Our boy Jay Money often gets asked about what Fed officials would need to see to do a 180 and start cutting interest rates. And true to form, Jay gave us a cryptic reply:

"We'd be comfortable cutting rates when we're comfortable cutting rates," he said at news conference today. JP, you sly silver fox.

3️⃣ We'll do it live!

The next few policy meetings will be "live," which is Fed-speak meaning we won't get any forward guidance on officials' policy decision.

That's a big change from the past year, when the Fed strategically avoided spooking investors by signaling its next move well in advance.

One thing we can expect: The Fed's likely got one more rate hike in its arsenal for the year, if the economy remains so robust that inflation begins to creep back up. As always, Jay and his gang of Fed officials will remain — buzzword warning — "data dependent."

NUMBER OF THE DAY

$1,800

Samsung is doubling down on foldable smartphones that (still) cost a lot of money. At an event Wednesday, the company unveiled its fifth-generation foldable smartphones, featuring new designs, better cameras, and longer battery life.

One thing it hasn't improved over earlier models, however, is the price. The Z Flip5 starts at $1,000, and the Z Fold5 starts at $1,800.

💸 BIG MOUTH

Sam Bankman-Fried is on very, very thin ice.

After months of enjoying a relatively easy time on house arrest — working on his defense from the comfort of his parents' Palo Alto home, with internet access and supervised in-person visits with friends — he's now facing the prospect of spending the rest of his pre-trial time in a New York jail.

Here's the deal: On Wednesday, federal prosecutors asked a judge to jail Bankman-Fried over what they say amounts to witness-tampering. Prosecutors say SBF leaked personal writings by his ex-colleague (who happens to be his ex-girlfriend) to the New York Times in an attempt to discredit her.

Caroline Ellison, 28, was the co-CEO of Alameda Research, FTX's crypto hedge fund, before both companies collapsed into bankruptcy late last year. She has pleaded guilty to multiple fraud charges and is expected to testify against him at his trial in October.

Step back: This is hardly the first stumble in SBF's road to trial. Since his arrest, he's been pummeling the press and the public with a narrative about his proclaimed innocence. It doesn't take a trial lawyer to know that that's terrible behavior for someone facing the possibility of life in prison. (SBF has pleaded not guilty to eight federal criminal charges, including wire fraud and conspiracy.)

Even after his bail conditions were tightened back in February — the result of prosecutors catching SBF messaging a former colleague — he's continued sounding off to anyone who'll listen.

The prosecution now says it "placed too much trust in the defendant" and believes it is "not possible to design a set of adequate release conditions" to ensure the safety of the community.

Bankman-Fried's lead attorney, Mark Cohen, pushed back on the witness-tampering claim, and accused the prosecution of springing the request to jail the defense at the last minute.

Bottom line: Judge Kaplan issued a temporary gag order and is giving both sides time to prepare more formal presentations before ruling on whether SBF can remain out of jail while he awaits a trial scheduled for October 2.

"I am aware pretty fully about the document issues and the need for access by the defendant. I am certainly very mindful of his First Amendment rights. I am very mindful of the government's interest in this issue, which I take very seriously," Kaplan said. "Mr. Bankman-Fried, you better take it seriously, too."

WHAT ELSE IS GOING ON?

💸 Shares of Facebook and Instagram's parent company, Meta, surged Wednesday after it reported revenue of $32 billion for the quarter ending in June, marking an 11% increase from the same period last year.

👀 British billionaire Joe Lewis was indicted on insider-trading charges by US federal prosecutors in New York.

👗 Gap announced that Richard Dickson, currently Mattel's president and chief operating officer, will be the retailer's new CEO.

🤖 Some of the world's top artificial intelligence companies are launching a new industry body to work together on ways to regulate the development of AI.