Neighboring economies are also set to see significant boosts to their GDP, as they prepare to welcome Chinese tourists who have been accumulating savings throughout the pandemic. Hong Kong, Thailand, Vietnam and Singapore are set to benefit from the release of this pent-up demand.
There could be "revenge spending," according to Alex Loo, a macro strategist for TD Securities. Analysts at Goldman Sachs estimate that Hong Kong could see an estimated 7.6% boost to its GDP as exports and tourism increase. Thailand's GP may be boosted by 2.9%, while Singapore would get a lift of 1.2%.
But the economic relief comes amid continued concern about the scale of China's ongoing Covid wave. The World Health Organization has accused China of "under-representing" the severity of its Covid outbreak and criticized its "narrow" definition of what constitutes a Covid death. China's official Covid-19 death toll since it eased restrictions remains strikingly low – with only 37 deaths recorded since December 7.
However, satellite images tell a wholly different story. The images – taken by Maxar in late December and early January and reviewed by CNN – show crowding at crematoriums and funeral homes. One location on the outskirts of Beijing appears to have constructed a brand-new parking area to keep up with demand.
"We continue to ask China for more rapid, regular, reliable data on hospitalizations and deaths, as well as more comprehensive, real-time viral sequencing," WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a media briefing in Geneva last week.
On Thursday, China's Foreign Ministry said the country has always shared epidemic information "in a timely, open and transparent manner" and insisted its Covid situation was "under control."
Chinese health officials also presented recent genomic data to a WHO advisory body during a closed-door meeting Tuesday. In a statement Wednesday, the WHO advisory body said the variants detected in China are known and have been circulating in other countries, with no new variant yet reported by the Chinese CDC.
Meanwhile, a new variant is causing concern in the United States. Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO's technical lead on Covid-19, warned last week that XBB.1.5 may be "the most transmissible form of Omicron to date."
XBB.1.5 is the product of recombination: Two descendents of BA.2, the subvariant that drove a modest wave of cases in April, swapped pieces of their genetic code, resulting in 14 new mutations to the virus' spike proteins compared with BA.2, and a new sublineage, XBB.
XBB drove a wave of cases in Singapore last fall but failed to gain much ground in the US. However, recent mutations to the XBB strain allowed it to take hold. XBB.1.5 has a key mutation at site 486, which allows it to bind more tightly to ACE2, the doors the virus uses to enter our cells.
"The mutation is clearly letting XBB.1.5 spread better," Jesse Bloom, a computational virologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, wrote in an email.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimate the new variant is causing an estimated 28% of cases in the country. In the Northeast – where the variant was first detected – this figure jumps to 60%.
Although a post-holiday season peak was predicted, experts say XBB.1.5 is likely driving this higher. Hospitalizations for Covid-19 are climbing and have now surpassed the numbers seen during last summer's BA.5 wave.
While much of the attention towards new variants has been focused on China, XBB.1.5 is a reminder that the pandemic is not over in the rest of the world.
IN OTHER NEWS
- Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has officially rescinded the military's Covid-19 vaccination mandate for troops after President Joe Biden signed the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act, requiring its dismissal. The requirement to remove the mandate was viewed as a win for conservative lawmakers who had long argued that it was hindering the military's recruitment efforts, though Pentagon officials maintained there was no evidence to support the claim. CNN previously reported that Democrats ultimately decided that in order to get the legislation – which bolstered US support for Ukraine and NATO – over the finish line, they would have to allow the Republics' removal of the mandate.
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