I don't know about y'all, but I could use some hopeful news today. So here's what I've got: Inflation appears to be — really, this time — easing.
Here's the deal: There are two main ways economists measure inflation in the US, and the Fed's preferred metric, called the PCE, or Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (if you're fancy about it,) is cooling off.
The PCE reading for October showed prices up 6% from a year ago. That's down from 6.3% in September.
And if you take out the prices of food and energy, which tend to skew monthly readings because they're so volatile, the index rose just 5% over the past 12 months.
(The other metric, the Consumer Price Index, tends to be the more commonly talked about one, but we're not taking sides here. They're both fine, and flawed, like most economic models. If you're interested in the differences, you can read about them here).
What's that all mean?
The PCE is essentially confirming what the CPI has shown: It's a tale of two inflations.
- Service inflation — think health care, restaurants, travel, etc. — is ticking up.
- Prices of goods are softening, particularly in areas like home furnishings and cars — two items that were in peak demand during the worst of the pandemic.
OK, so, what happens now?
The Fed should be pleased that its aggressive rate hikes in the past few months are having their desired effect, and they can ease up a bit. After four giant three-quarter-point hikes in a row, all signs point to Fed Chair Jay Powell announcing a half-point bump later this month.
BIG PICTURE
It's taken most of the year, but the economy appears to have made it over the mountain of inflation and aggressive rate hikes, according to Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group.
But the journey isn't over.
"The next mountain needing to be conquered, and will be the 2023 focus I believe, is the economic consequences to such a sharp rise in interest rates, the higher cost of capital that both businesses and households have to deal with and the recession it creates," he said.
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