Citizens do not feel safe enough to return to life "as normal" when Covid-19 continues to spread, even though it is now being termed merely a "coronavirus cold" by Zhong Nanshan, a key public voice during the pandemic.
Official data suggests that the worst of the recent spike has passed. But recent changes to the way cases are counted mean official data is unreliable. China stopped reporting asymptomatic cases last week, conceding it was no longer possible to track the actual number of infections. Even symptomatic cases may not get picked up, as cities roll back mass testing and allow people to use antigen tests at home.
The death tolls are no more reliable. On Monday, Chinese health authorities announced two Covid deaths, both in the capital Beijing. They were the first officially reported deaths since the dramatic easing of restrictions on December 7.
But CNN's Selina Wang saw a wholly different story when she visited a crowded funeral center in Beijing. Staff told her that people are dying of Covid "every day," while families queue in long lines of cars waiting to hear if their loved ones can be cremated. On Baidu, China's main online search engine, searches for "funeral homes" by Beijing residents have hit a record high since the pandemic began.
When countries elsewhere in the world reopened, this was often met with an economic rebound. But in China, where fear of contracting the virus is causing many to stay home, experts warn a full recovery may be months away. Analysts at the investment bank Nomura warned that "the road to a full reopening may still be painful and bumpy."
Some were tempted to venture out to see the new "Avatar" movie in cinemas – but, in the case of one viewer, only after putting on protective clothing, an N95 mask, and spraying her body and hands with alcohol. "My 3D glasses were covered with fog," she told CNN.
The abrupt decision to abandon zero-Covid – at a time when cases were already set to reach record levels among an under-vaccinated population – has left the Chinese government with the worst of both worlds.
Under zero-Covid, the economy took the hit, but the population was protected from the virus. Under the new system, the economy is still taking the hit, and the population is now at risk from the virus.
And that risk is likely to be severe. A new study found that China's under-prepared exit from zero-Covid could lead to nearly 1 million deaths. Under the current conditions, a nationwide reopening could result in up to 684 deaths per million people – or 964,400 deaths across the population – according to researchers at the University of Hong Kong. The report stressed that boosting vaccination and antiviral coverage is the key to limiting this toll.
The cost to President Xi Jinping's prestige is likely to be high. For nearly three years, Xi staked his political legitimacy on zero-Covid, styling himself as the "commander-in-chief" of a "people's war" against the virus. But now, as China grapples with a haphazard exit, Xi has fallen silent. He was last quoted in state media on November 10, where he vowed to "unswervingly" carry out "dynamic zero-Covid."
The People's Daily, the Communist Party's flagship mouthpiece, has filled some of this silence, claiming on Thursday that Xi's policy has been "completely correct" all along.
But for citizens afraid to leave their homes and unable to arrange funerals for their loved ones, this may sound like another contradiction.
IN OTHER NEWS
- The White House warned Americans preparing to celebrate Christmas with friends and family that they are at risk from a trio of threats. "This is not one disease in isolation," said White House Covid-19 response coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha, in an interview with CNN on Monday. Instead, the US is battling a confluence of respiratory diseases: not just Covid-19, but influenza and RSV as well. The simultaneous waves of all three diseases is causing strain on the health system. "This increase that we're seeing in Covid is in the context of one of the worst flu seasons in a decade and RSV that was quite bad," Jha told CNN.
- Democratic investigators on the House Intelligence Committee have alleged that US intelligence agencies may have lost a critical opportunity to gather useful information on the Covid-19 pandemic's origins. A report published Thursday claims that the intelligence community gave a litany of warnings to the Trump administration in the early days of the pandemic, which the former President was slow to respond to. The report cited a "lack of clandestine collection" of information from sources during the initial outbreak of Covid-19, which may hamper the intelligence community's ability to understand where or how the virus emerged – a debate that is likely to intensify once Republicans claim control of the House of Representatives in the coming weeks.
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