After a sharp summer rally, US stocks are just 2.3% lower than they were in late February. But the bleak mood continues to influence investing decisions. What happens next in the conflict could also factor into the Fed's next steps, which remain a key determinant for the market's trajectory.
Stocks of European companies, which are more directly exposed to the war and the energy crisis it sparked, are nearly 5% lower. They face a much grimmer outlook.
If the war were to end, Coombs said shares of European firms like Germany's Siemens could experience a huge rally. But he expressed little optimism on that front.
"There is no end in sight. There is no obvious coming together of the two countries," he said. "At the moment, you're kind of factoring in that this war continues right through 2023."
The long arm of the conflict isn't just hanging over the global stock market.
Agricultural products. The cost of wheat has fallen back sharply after spiking to an all-time high in March, as investors cheered a deal brokered by the United Nations and Turkey to restart exports of grain from key Ukrainian ports.
But Tracey Allen, an agricultural commodities strategist at JPMorgan Chase, said that difficult logistics continue to limit shipments from Ukraine, and extreme weather could push up prices again in the coming months.
"The market really needs the grain volumes coming out of Ukraine, but it doesn't appear we're going to have any normalization in the export flow without a ceasefire," she told me.
Energy prices. Global oil prices spiked as high as $139 per barrel in early March, but have dropped on growing fears of a recession that could hit demand for fuel. They've shed about 18% since the beginning of June.
Yet natural gas prices are soaring as Russia toys with supply to Europe via key pipelines and heat waves push up electricity usage. They hit a record in Europe this week and a 14-year high in the United States. Industry is being hit and consumers face a desperate winter.
Currencies. The euro hit a two-decade low this week on fears that an energy-strapped Europe could fall into a tough recession. Last month, it reached parity with the rallying US dollar for the first time since 2002.
The strong dollar, which gains ground when investors are stressed and want to park their money somewhere safe, could put emerging markets which pay for imports in dollars at risk. It could ding more developed economies, too.
"A sustained rebound in most [major] currencies against the greenback seems unlikely to us at this stage," ING strategists said in a note this week.
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