The big event for investors on Friday is in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will speak about the economy at a gathering of central bankers.
Wall Street will be hanging on to Powell's every word for clues about just how big the Fed's next rate hike will be.
The problem? The Fed itself has indicated that it doesn't know yet.
"Because we're uncertain, we're desperate for some kind of signal from the Fed," David Bianco, Americas chief investment officer at DWS, told me. "But they don't have clarity themselves on it."
Quick rewind: The Federal Reserve started raising interest rates in March in a bid to bring down inflation. At its past two meetings, it's hiked interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point, an unprecedented move in the central bank's modern history.
Investors have been increasingly hopeful that the Fed could ease up from here, especially after inflation slowed slightly last month. Consumer prices rose 8.5% in the year to July, down from 9.1% in June.
That's the big reason US stocks have rallied this summer. The S&P 500 is up about 15% from its June low.
But when Fed officials have actually talked about their plans, they've made clear that they're in wait-and-see mode.
"We anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate," Powell said in late July. "The pace of those increases will continue to depend on the incoming data and the evolving outlook for the economy."
In short, the Fed's decision at its next meeting on Sept. 20 and 21 hinges on the economic numbers due to arrive in the coming weeks, including the August jobs report and the latest Consumer Price Index.
The most recent edition of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, hits later this morning. It's expected to show that core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, ticked down to 4.7% in July from 4.8% the previous month.
"I don't think we should try to read too much into whatever is said at Jackson Hole," Bianco said. "They are just as uncertain about these things as we are."
Wall Street's view: Investors now think that the likelihood that the Fed will hike rates by three-quarters of a percentage point for a third consecutive meeting is over 60%. One week ago, they put the odds at 47%.
That indicates markets could be choppy in the coming weeks as traders try to pin down just how aggressive the Fed will be. But given the time left on the clock for the situation to change again, investors shouldn't expect Jackson Hole to yield a lightbulb moment.
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