It feels fitting that today, one of those mid-December blah days when everyone in the office is extremely ready to check out, that a key inflation report was honestly super boring.
The monthly Consumer Price Index report, which measures inflation, is often a Big News Day because of how sharply the early-2020s economy has whipsawed from a deep freeze to a rapid boil and (slowly) back down to normal-ish.
In the past few years, the CPI has consistently surprised economists, both with its surge up to a 9% peak in June 2022, back down to around 3% in late 2023.
Today, the biggest surprise was the lack of surprise: CPI ticked down slightly to 3.1% year-over-year in November — exactly as economists expected, my colleague Alicia Wallace writes.
There's good and bad news in the report. All the usual suspects made an appearance...
The good:
- Gas and food got more affordable in between October and November. Gas prices, in particular, have been sinking for weeks. The national average right now stands at $3.13 a gallon, per AAA.
- "Core" inflation (which excludes stuff like gas and food that have more volatile price movements than, say, rent or mortgage payments) held steady at 4% — still its lowest level in more than two years.
- Real wages rose at an annual rate of 0.8% — the eighth consecutive month of growth after 24 months in negative territory, according to separate data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The bad:
- Inflation is coming down but prices are not, and that still really sucks because we can all remember 2019 when everyday things cost less.
- We're not at 2% yet, and the Fed isn't going to ease interest rates until it's confident inflation can hold steady around that target.
- Rent is still stupidly high. Shelter prices were up 6.5% on the year. And buying a home is a crapshoot right now because of one-two-three punch high prices, high borrowing costs and low supply.
Big picture
Tuesday's snoozefest of a CPI report came out just as Fed policymakers were gathering for their regular two-day meeting. And while the central bank officially favors a different inflation gauge from CPI, the folks deciding monetary policy are taking in all the data available.
The consensus view is that the Fed will announce tomorrow afternoon that it's holding interest rates steady.
Will today's report affect the Fed's policy decision? Probably not.
If anything, the CPI may reinforce their view that rates should remain elevated to keep inflation from flaring up again.
The Fed chair, Jay "Higher For Longer" Powell, has consistently noted that it's premature to declare victory in the inflation fight. An elusive "soft landing" — hitting 2% inflation without crashing the economy into a ditch — isn't out of reach. But like most good things, we'll have to wait.
"This report is very good news for the soft landing contingent," Allison Oldham Luedtke, assistant professor of economics at St. Olaf College, told Alicia. "We are in the smoothest of descents. We just need to be a little patient about it."
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