Today was, to paraphrase my colleague Luciana Lopez, historic for the United States for all the wrong reasons.
ICYMI: Just as news of yet another indictment against former President Donald Trump was being handed up by a grand jury, Fitch Ratings announced that it was downgrading US debt, citing "a steady deterioration" in the standards of governance over the past two decades, including repeated impasses over the debt ceiling.
(And since all of that happened as Nightcap was just about to be wrapped for the evening, I take the timing as a personal attack on my wellbeing.)
Anyway, if you want to know more about the four new charges against Trump in the investigation into efforts to overturn the 2020 election, let me direct you to my colleagues' live updates, here.
For the Fitch fiasco, you've come to the right place.
In short: Fitch Ratings, one of the Big Three ratings firms along with Moody's and S&P, downgraded its assessment of US sovereign debt from its top-notch "AAA" to one notch below that, "AA+"
That's a big deal. The last time US debt got downgraded was 2011, when lawmakers in Congress drove negotiations on the debt ceiling to the edge of a cliff. Even though the US didn't default, the threat of it was enough to prompt a credit downgrade from S&P, sparking a stock-market selloff that took months to recover from.
Fitch appears to be concerned about overall Washington dysfunction, including yet another near-miss on US default this past spring. It cited "the expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years," the federal government's high debt burden, and the "erosion of governance" compared with other AAA-rated countries.
But economists and Biden administration officials immediately criticized the decision, noting — not unfairly — the continued resilience of the US economy and an odd mishmash of old data Fitch appears to be relying on.
To wit:
Naturally, the Biden administration isn't happy with the news. Officials expressed exasperation, saying that the macroeconomic outlook described in Fitch's report is simply inconsistent with the consensus view in markets right now.
As of this writing, US markets were largely unfazed in after-hours trading.
My colleague Elisabeth Buchwald has more.
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