We've all heard Wall Street bigwigs compare the looming recession to gathering storm clouds, hurricanes, and heavy fog. But what happens when those weather events are no longer just analogies?
This month, extreme heatwaves in Texas and other southern states, toxic air caused by wildfires in the north and extreme storms along the eastern seaboard have caused more strife in an economy on the brink of dropping into reverse gear.
"It hurts the economy, and it certainly doesn't provide that stability that would allow us to avoid something like slipping into a recession," said Justin Mankin, a professor of geography at Dartmouth College who focuses on the risks global warming poses to ecosystems and people.
What's happening: Over 90 million people, mostly along the East Coast, were under threat on Monday as the system that produced nearly 400 storm reports on Sunday moved eastward. Another 40 million people in seven southern states fell under heat wave warnings on Monday, as the brutal ongoing heatwave in Texas fans out.
All told, at least a third of the US population is currently grappling with costly, extreme weather events.
That's on top of the nine confirmed US weather and climate disaster events so far this year each with losses exceeding $1 billion (many more will likely be confirmed in the coming weeks), according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Those nine events alone have totaled about $23.7 billion in damages to the US economy, researchers found, and some analysts say that vastly underestimates the long-term impact.
In 2022, extreme weather events cost the United States about $165 billion, according to the NOAA.
Just how costly these events will end up being is still largely unknown.
"The nature of these extremes is that they propagate through our economies in ways that we don't totally understand," explained Mankin.
"We know enough to say that they're very harmful but in terms of their actual costs, and for how long those costs accumulate, that's something that we in the research community are just getting a handle on."
Heat waves in particular, he said, typically deliver a shock to the economy.
Texas already loses about $30 billion a year in productivity due to its hot climate, according to an NOAA report. They project that number will jump to about $110 billion a year by 2050 — 2.5% of Texas' economy.
Sector by sector: Extreme weather impacts the economy writ large, but certain sectors tend to suffer more than others.
Take airlines, for instance.
More than 5,000 flights across the United States were delayed or canceled Monday as powerful storms ripped through parts of the country. Flight delays often result in huge economic losses; the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) estimated the cost of airline backups to be about $33 billion in 2019.
This spring, Southwest Airlines cited extreme weather as a growing concern for airlines after December storm disruptions cost the company nearly $1.2 billion.
"Whether it's for hurricanes or winter weather or rain, thunderstorms, we now need to have a planning process that includes outcomes that are beyond what we've seen before. That's a big takeaway for us," said Southwest COO Andrew Watterson.
Agriculture, construction, tourism and renewable energy sectors also tend to feel the brunt of extreme weather events.
The consumer cost: In Texas, power costs have increased by 100% in some instances as the record heat wave drives demand higher, adding considerably to household costs.
Flood insurance and home insurance have also become necessary but often unattainable. Experts fear the cost of insurance will only get worse as climate change intensifies both hurricanes and extreme rain events.
Major insurance companies have already virtually pulled out of the Florida market, leaving homeowners paying premiums nearly four times higher than those paid elsewhere in the country. Hurricane risk is part of Florida's problem — Hurricane Ian last year was the most expensive storm ever to hit the state.
"We're really poorly adapted to the extreme weather and climate that we have right now," said Mankin. "And that also goes for our economy."
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