As recently as last month, a single case of Covid-19 in China was enough to see whole residential blocks locked down. Now, as many as a quarter of a billion in the country may have been infected by the disease in December. Any data on Covid emerging from China is unlikely to be reliable. China no longer tallies its total number of infections, after authorities shut down their nationwide network of PCR testing booths and said they would stop gathering data on asymptomatic cases. But, according to an internal estimate from the nation's top health officials, almost 250 million people in China may have caught Covid in the first 20 days of December, Bloomberg News and the Financial Times reported Friday. The figures cited were presented during an internal meeting of China's National Health Commission (NHC) on Wednesday, according to both outlets. On Friday, a copy of what was purportedly the NHC meeting notes was circulated on Chinese social media and seen by CNN; the authenticity of the document has not been verified and the NHC did not immediately respond to a request for comment. If correct, the estimate – which CNN cannot independently confirm – would account for roughly 18% of China's 1.4 billion people and represent the largest Covid-19 outbreak to date globally. Among the estimates cited in both reports was the revelation that on Tuesday alone, 37 million people were newly infected with Covid-19 across China. That stood in dramatic contrast to the official number of 3,049 new infections reported that day. The official death tally also tells an unconvincing story. China has reported only eight Covid deaths this month as of December 22. Jin Dongyan, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong, described the death count as "subjective" and "misleading." Caixin, a Chinese financial magazine known for its investigative pieces, reported on the deaths of two veteran state media journalists infected with Covid, on days the official toll stood at zero. |
Medical staff wait to assist patients at a fever clinic treating Covid-19 patients in Beijing. Medical staff wear PPE as they wait to assist a patient at a fever clinic treating COVID-19 |
Events on the ground point to a growing crisis. There are long queues outside crematoriums. Factories and companies are being forced to shut down or cut production because of more workers getting sick. Drugstores across the country are rationing fever medications. The streets in some cities are emptier than they were in the days of zero-Covid, as people stay at home either because they are sick with the virus, or simply for fear of becoming infected. Some relief may come in the form of Paxlovid, an antiviral drug manufactured by Pfizer. State media reported Monday that Beijing will begin distributing Paxlovid to the city's community health centers in the coming days. It is the only foreign medicine to treat Covid that has been approved by China's regulator for nationwide use. However, despite concerning rates of vaccine protection among China's elderly population, there has been no sign yet that Western mRNA vaccines may be added to the list of approved foreign medicines. Given that there now appears to be no means of containing the virus, China announced Monday that it would drop quarantine requirements for international arrivals from January 8 – a major step toward reopening its borders that have shut off the country from the rest of the world for nearly three years. Inbound travelers will only be required to show a negative Covid test result obtained within 48 hours before departure, the NHC said in a statement. Such lax regulations would have been inconceivable at the start of the year, when those arriving for the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics faced a labyrinth of tests, quarantines, QR codes and transport restrictions. This scrapping of restrictions means many Chinese citizens working or studying abroad will be able to return home for the first time in three years. Those who could not afford the soaring price of flights and lengthy hotel quarantines will be able to reunite with their family, in time for the Lunar New Year at the end of January. But many will feel that they are returning to a country that has changed irrevocably. It is hard to overstate the abruptness of China's abandonment of zero-Covid, just as it is hard to overstate just how exacting the past three years of restrictions have been. "These three years have changed us forever," a Chinese journalist wrote on the microblogging site Weibo. Only a few weeks ago, President Xi Jinping justified his zero-Covid policy at the Communist Party conference, where his authority was deemed to be unassailable as he secured an unprecedented third term in power. In his opening speech, Xi said he had "prioritized the people and their lives above all else." But, after nationwide protests demanded an end to the restrictions Xi had staked much of his authority on, it remains to be seen what the long-term political effects of the fallout from zero-Covid will be. For much of the pandemic, images of overflowing hospitals and busy funeral homes from the United States have featured heavily on China's state-controlled television, where the deaths of over a million Americans from Covid is depicted as a gross failing of Western democracy. Now, its state media has little choice but to ignore similar scenes unfolding at home. If China's death toll eventually rivals or surpasses America's – and studies suggest it may – many may wonder what the pain of the past three years was all for. IN OTHER NEWS
- US President Joe Biden on Friday signed the National Defense Authorization Act into law, which ended the requirement that US troops receive the Covid-19 vaccine. However, it will not reinstate members of the military who were discharged for refusing to get vaccinated. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre had previously said the White House had viewed the removal of the vaccine mandate as "a mistake."
- Several members of a QAnon group in Japan were sentenced by a Tokyo court on Thursday for breaking into multiple Covid vaccination centers in March and April this year, according to CNN affiliate TV Asahi. The five defendants were members of YamatoQ, an offshoot of the larger QAnon conspiracy theory that originated in the United States in 2017. All of the defendants were given suspended sentences.
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| Global Cases 658,598,248 Global Deaths 6,682,716 |
| US Cases 100,471,223 US Deaths 1,090,595 |
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Source: Johns Hopkins University |
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Q Should we be worried about a "China variant"? A Given how rapidly Covid-19 is spreading across China, many have wondered whether this may lead to the virus mutating into dangerous new strains. Just as we had a "Brazil variant" and "South Africa" variant, some are concerned we may soon be hearing of a "China variant." But Professor Francois Balloux, director of the Genetics Institute at University College London, told CNN these fears may be overblown. "For these new variants to emerge, [it needs more than] just circulation in the population," said Balloux in an interview. "They don't arise by accumulating one mutation after the next." Because China's levels of immunization against the virus is "essentially entirely through vaccination," and because this protection is "waning," Balloux said "there will probably be little pressure on the virus to evolve." "Fundamentally, this is not necessarily a horror scenario for us, for populations where the virus has circulated," said Balloux, who said the focus should instead be on the "humanitarian disaster" unfolding in China. Still, he did not rule out the possibility that a China variant could emerge over the next year. Some countries are already showing signs of concern. The US is considering imposing new Covid measures for individuals traveling from China due to concerns over the rise of cases in the country and the "lack of transparent data." One official said they anticipate a decision about a possible testing requirement could be made "soon." India is already taking precautions. |
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US hospitals are under increasing strain due to large numbers of elderly people with Covid-19 needing treatment. Since October, the Covid-19 hospitalization rate among seniors has been at least four times higher than average. Even during the first winter surge in 2020, when Covid-19 took a devastating sweep through nursing homes, there was never more than a threefold difference. Dr. Eric Topol, a physician and professor of molecular medicine at Scripps Research, has dubbed the rise happening now the "senior wave." What does Topol think is the main culprit? "Booster deficiency," he said, describing the rate of takeup as "woefully inadequate." "It all points to waning immunity. If more seniors had their booster, the effect would be minimal," he said. Our top tip this week is for senior citizens who have not yet had their booster to seek them out, to stay safe this winter. |
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CORONAVIRUS: FACT vs FICTION |
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