The economy of the 2020s is a tough one to read. Like, are we in a recession? Technically, no, but "technically" is carrying a lot of weight there. Economists look to several indicators — GDP growth, employment, bond yields, wages, etc — to determine the answer.
Of course, there are other, less scientific but more fun ways to gauge economic health. Famously, there's the Lipstick Index, which suggests lipstick sales surge in lean times because it's an inexpensive indulgence that makes people happy. Alan Greenspan put forward the Men's Underwear Index, demonstrating that sales of boxers and briefs plummeted from 2007 to 2009, during the Great Recession, before picking back up as the economy recovered.
One other, deeply unscientific, indicator: The Powerball.
See here: The Powerball lottery jackpot is expected to grow to $1.9 billion ahead of tonight's drawing, the largest lotto prize ever.
Your chances of winning are minuscule — about 1 in 292 million. You're more likely to be eaten by a shark. Or be struck by lighting twice. Then again, the odds of you existing on planet Earth are 400 quadrillion to one, so you're already winning in the grand scheme of, like, the cosmos.
Conventional wisdom used to hold that people would shell out on lottery tickets even in lean times, willing to risk a few bucks in the hopes of striking it big.
But in the Great Recession, state lotteries reported huge declines as desperation set in for millions. By 2010, sales were picking back up, even though people were still reeling from the downturn.
In that context, we can see this week's record Powerball as a sign that people are seeking comfort in a bit of financial escapism. The mind-bogglingly large jackpot tends to draw in people who don't normally buy lotto tickets.
Blowing money on a bet you're virtually guaranteed to lose isn't a rational move, but it's a fantasy people can still afford to indulge. And with the costs of everyday necessities going ever higher, what's a couple of bucks for a Powerball? Again, it may not be rational, but it is undeniably human.
History suggests there is a point of financial frustration and fear at which even a $2 bet feels reckless. We are clearly not there yet.
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