After a mercifully quiet summer, the stock market is going to have a lot to react to this month. Between consequential central bank decisions around the globe (and at least eight US Fed officials speaking this week alone), Big Bank CEOs testifying before Congress and some changes coming to the crypto market, investors will have a lot to digest and contend with. That's not to mention the host of economic data that will let us know more about whether inflation is still biting, the labor market is still booming and consumers are still shopping.
Historically speaking, this isn't a great month for markets. But September is a month of clarity. The crisp air snaps away the last of August's haze and allows us to see what's ahead. Here's what we'll be watching over the next few weeks.
Big week for central banks The US Federal Reserve is arguably one of the most influential forces on markets right now as officials consider further interest rate hikes later this month to fight inflation. Investors will be watching closely for any clues to what it might do. Central bank decisions on hikes are expected across the globe, which are expected to have impacts on both European and US markets.
▸ Sept. 7: It's a central bank bonanza as Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard and Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr all give their economic outlooks. On top of that, the Fed will release its Beige Book, which describes the state of consumer spending, sentiment and housing demands in the 12 Federal Reserve districts.
Beyond the US, the Bank of Canada also publishes its decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate.
▸ Sept. 8: The Fed fete continues as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks from the Cato Institute at 9:10 am, ET. The last time Powell spoke, from Jackson Hole, he said the economy should expect some pain on the horizon, which sent markets reeling.
The European Central Bank will also release its decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate, which will be closely watched by investors globally.
▸ Sept. 9: This week of Fed festivities wraps with speeches from Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Governor Christopher Waller.
An onslaught of data Key economic data mapping the trajectory of US inflation comes out the following week. This is the last drop of data before the Fed meets to decide where interest rates go, and investors will be looking closely for signs that inflation could be easing.
▸ Sept. 13: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August is released. This measures the change in the prices of goods and services, and the Fed pays very close attention to this figure.
▸ Sept. 14: Producer Price Index (PPI) for August is released. This is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. It measures a change in input prices of raw, semi-finished or finished goods and services.
▸ Sept. 15: The Bank of England publishes its decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. In the US, retail sales for August will also be released. These are an important indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.
All eyes on DC The penultimate week of September is perhaps the most newsworthy. Investors have been waiting since July to see the Fed's next move, and this week they finally meet and announce the extent to which they'll raise rates. Wall Street CEOs will also flock to the Hill to talk banking policy, and could give an update on where they predict the economy is headed in.
▸ Sept. 20- 21: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members will meet and vote on where to set the target interest rate. Traders will watch the decision closely as well as the press conference following the decision with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Any surprises could send US markets tumbling.
▸ Sept. 21-22: Bank of America's Brian Moynihan, Wells Fargo's Charlie Scharf, JPMorgan Chase's Jamie Dimon, Citi's Jane Fraser, PNC's Bill Demchak, US Bank's Andrew Cecere and Truist's Bill Roger all testify for their annual report to Senate and Congress. Investors will listen for any predictions on where the economy is going and for any mentions of that dreaded 'R' word: Recession.
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